Arsenal Women vs Manchester United: WSL Preview & Prediction

Arsenal are back at the Emirates on Saturday evening, Manchester United are the visitors, it’s a 5.30 kick-off and I think this is quite an interesting game for both teams because neither of them is coming into it particularly happy with what happened last weekend.

In Arsenal's case, of course, they somehow managed to draw 0-0 at home to Crystal Palace in a game where they had 79 per cent possession, 30 shots, nine on target, hit the woodwork twice and spent what felt like most of Sunday afternoon in the Palace penalty area without ever managing to put the ball in the net.

Yes, it was frustrating. I was frustrated watching it, Renée was frustrated afterwards and I’m fairly sure Alessia Russo didn’t go home thinking that had been one of the more enjoyable afternoons of her career.

But I think we’ve probably done enough talking about that game now.

There are things Arsenal need to improve, particularly around turning all of that possession and all of those entries into the penalty area into better chances, which Renée Slegers confirmed in her pre-match press conference is something they’ve been working on in training.

What I don’t think we need to do is turn a 0-0 draw in the second league game of the season into evidence that absolutely everything is wrong.

Apparently Renée doesn’t either.

She was asked about Arsenal’s unbeaten run and made the point that, while obviously they’re disappointed about the draws within it, she thinks the Palace game was different from some of the draws we saw last season because Arsenal were much more dominant, created more and were much more on top of the game.

I think that’s about where I am with it.

It wasn’t good enough because Arsenal should be beating Crystal Palace at home and if we’re talking about challenging for the WSL title, those are two points we’d much rather have than not have.

But we’re two games into a season in which Arsenal have changed quite a lot of the squad. We’ve got new relationships developing all over the pitch and, if 30 shots and 79 per cent possession is what a complete disaster looks like, I think we’ll probably survive.

And if that sounds like I’m trying to calm everybody down slightly, wait until we get to Manchester United.

Because while we’ve spent the week worrying about a nil-nil draw, United have spent theirs recovering from Chelsea going to Leigh Sports Village and beating them 5-0.

They’d already lost 2-1 to London City Lionesses on the opening weekend, so Eva Olid’s first two WSL games as Manchester United manager have brought two defeats, seven goals conceded and one scored.

Which means Saturday brings together one set of supporters worried because their team had 30 shots and didn’t score, and another set of supporters whose team has conceded seven goals in two games.

Football is back.

Renée said something in her press conference which I think is probably quite a useful thought for both sides.

She was asked about the criticism Eva Olid has already been getting and started her answer by saying: “I’m always in favour of kindness in the world.”

I liked that.

Not because I think kindness means we shouldn’t criticise anything. If Arsenal are poor, we’ll say they’re poor. If I think Renée gets something wrong, I’ll say so and I’m sure Manchester United supporters are perfectly entitled to look at seven goals conceded in two games and ask a few questions of their own.

But Olid arrived in August.

She’s trying to change the way Manchester United play without having had anything resembling a normal pre-season to do it and Renée made the point that it takes time for players to understand a new game model to the point where they almost know what their teammates are going to do without looking.

Arsenal are going through a version of that themselves with all the changes we’ve made this summer, albeit Renée has had considerably more time to work on it.

Although I’d still quite like Arsenal to beat them on Saturday.

So with all of that said, what are we expecting?

There were certainly signs of what Olid is trying to do against London City. She wants United to have the ball, she wants them to play through midfield and find players between the lines rather than simply getting it forward, but it didn’t really work for much of that game.

London City had 60 per cent possession, United managed only four attempts and their only shot on target was Simi Awujo’s goal right at the end, by which point they were already 2-0 down.

Olid described their first half as “not us” afterwards, which I thought was quite telling because it suggests what we watched wasn’t necessarily what she wants Manchester United to become. It was a team still trying to work out how to do it.

Then Chelsea gave them a completely different sort of afternoon last weekend.

United started reasonably well and Elisabeth Terland had an early effort that Hannah Hampton had to deal with, but Chelsea gradually took control and once the goals started coming, they didn’t really stop. Five different Chelsea players scored, United conceded 25 shots and by the end it was a pretty comprehensive defeat.

I don’t think we need to spend ages analysing how Chelsea scored all five because, frankly, I’m more interested in what United do after conceding them.

Does Olid come to the Emirates and think, right, we’re building something here, we’re going to keep trying to play our football and accept that there might be a few uncomfortable afternoons while everybody learns it?

Or does she look at what Crystal Palace did to Arsenal six days earlier and decide that perhaps this particular Saturday might be a good time to keep everybody a little closer together?

I wouldn’t blame her if she did.

Renée doesn’t seem completely sure what United will do either and she used quite a good phrase for it in the press conference, describing what Arsenal might face as some sort of “hybrid Man United”.

There are still parts of the team we knew under Marc Skinner, particularly that fairly robust defensive organisation, but they’re beginning to do different things on the ball under Olid.

And we know how difficult the old version of Manchester United could be for Arsenal because both league meetings last season finished 0-0.

So I’m certainly not looking at United’s first two results and expecting Arsenal to turn up and score five themselves.

If anything, I’d expect United to be slightly more cautious after Chelsea and if they are, Arsenal might find themselves looking at another fairly compact defence and having to answer some of the same questions Palace asked them last weekend.

The difference is that United should carry considerably more threat going the other way.

They’ve still got Ella Toone, they’ve got Elisabeth Terland through the middle and Jess Park is there as well, so if Arsenal become too preoccupied with getting everybody forward and leave spaces behind, there are players in this United team who can use them.

Which is why I don’t think Arsenal need to do anything particularly dramatic tactically.

I’d like to see the same patience we saw for most of the Palace game. Keep moving United around, keep trying to create those overloads and little movements around the penalty area, but hopefully be a bit more clinical when the chances arrive and perhaps resist the temptation to throw the entire substitutes’ bench onto the pitch if it hasn’t gone in after an hour.

There is one player I think could be particularly useful against United though and that’s Lisa Baum.

I really liked what she did against Palace because she wasn’t simply playing as a winger who stood on the right and waited for the ball. She came inside, appeared around the penalty area, combined with Russo and kept making Palace decide who was supposed to be dealing with her.

Renée was asked about her and confirmed she can play 90 minutes now, although she’s still building the ability to repeat all of those high-intensity runs because the wide positions in this Arsenal system are physically demanding.

So I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t start again.

And if United are still getting used to a new defensive system, having Baum wandering into areas where somebody has to decide whether to follow her seems like quite a sensible way of finding out how well they’ve learned it.

There are a few things that have changed on the injury front since Palace and, for Arsenal at least, one of them happened this week.

Élisa de Almeida is out. Renée confirmed that she picked up an injury during the week, so having made the bench against Palace she won’t be available against United.

Daphne van Domselaar is still working her way back from the knee problem she had treatment on during the summer and Renée said October is somewhere in their minds for her return, although even that isn’t being treated as a definite date because her recovery plan has already had to change a couple of times.

Katie Reid and Michelle Agyemang are also still on their longer-term returns from ACL injuries, so neither is available yet.

The more encouraging news is Géraldine Reuteler and Selina Cerci.

Neither has made the squad for the first two league games, which obviously caused a bit of discussion because they’re two of the players Arsenal brought in during the summer and everybody quite reasonably wants to see them.

We now have an explanation.

Both had disrupted pre-seasons and spent time away from the team, so Arsenal felt they needed a little longer to get properly settled and ready. They’ve both trained really well this week though and Renée said they could be involved against United, with one more training session to come before she makes the final decision.

So I think there’s a decent chance we see at least one of them and I’d put both in the squad if they’re ready.

It doesn’t mean I suddenly think they both need to start. We’ve only just spent several paragraphs talking about players needing time to learn how everybody around them works, so throwing every new signing onto the pitch at once would rather undermine my own argument.

But I’d like the options on the bench.

United have a few absences of their own.

Fridolina Rolfö announced last week that she’s pregnant, so obviously she won’t be involved and Celin Bizet Ildhusøy is also still away from the team following the birth of her child earlier this summer. Emma Watson has been ruled out for a few weeks and Jayde Riviere missed the Chelsea game after picking up a calf problem against London City.

United haven’t given a return date for Riviere yet, so at the moment I certainly wouldn’t be putting her into a predicted eleven.

I think the injuries probably hurt United a little more simply because Arsenal have so much depth.

Élisa being unavailable is disappointing, particularly because we’re still waiting to see her properly in an Arsenal shirt, but Renée can still choose from Leah Williamson, Lotte Wubben-Moy and Steph Catley at centre-back, with Ona Batlle, Emily Fox, Smilla Holmberg and Taylor Hinds amongst the full-back options.

Which brings us quite neatly to the team.

There’s the team I think Renée will pick and there’s the team I’d quite like her to pick. They’re not necessarily going to be exactly the same.

I think Renée probably stays fairly close to Palace.

Misa Rodríguez obviously continues in goal while Daphne is out. I’d expect Emily Fox at right-back, Leah Williamson and Lotte Wubben-Moy together in the middle and Ona Batlle on the left.

In midfield I think Georgia Stanway and Kyra Cooney-Cross continue together, with Mariona ahead of them, because we’ve only seen that particular combination for a very short amount of time and I’d quite like to allow it to become a partnership before we start taking it apart again.

Russo starts through the middle for me and Lisa Baum absolutely keeps her place on the right.

The one change I think Renée might make is Olivia Smith coming in on the left.

And that’s the change I’d make as well.

I like Chloe Kelly and I don’t think she was particularly poor against Palace, but against a United team that’s still trying to get comfortable with a new defensive structure, I want Olivia running at people.

She’s direct, she’s strong and if she beats the first defender she immediately forces somebody else to make a decision about whether they’re coming across to help.

Where I’d be slightly more adventurous than I think Renée will be is at right-back, because I’m still tempted by Smilla Holmberg behind Lisa Baum.

Not because Emily Fox deserves to be dropped. She doesn’t.

I just think the combination could be interesting.

Lisa naturally wants to come inside and Smilla is very happy going outside her, so you’ve immediately got movement on that side that United have to work out. If their full-back follows Lisa, Smilla gets the outside. If she stays with Smilla, Lisa gets the space inside and suddenly somebody from midfield has to decide whether they’re coming across.

So my eleven would be Misa in goal, Holmberg, Williamson, Catley and Batlle across the back, Stanway and Kyra in midfield, Mariona ahead of them, Baum on the right, Smith on the left and Russo through the middle.

I suspect Renée’s will be almost exactly that with Emily Fox at right-back.

And if Reuteler and Cerci are ready, I’d have both of them sitting behind her because suddenly that bench starts looking rather interesting as well.

Then we’ve got Manchester United’s team.

Phallon Tullis-Joyce will be in goal and I’d expect Maya Le Tissier and Dominique Janssen to continue together in the middle of the defence.

Jayde Riviere is the question at right-back because she missed Chelsea with the calf problem we mentioned earlier, so unless she’s recovered in time, Hanna Lundkvist seems the obvious choice there, with Anna Sandberg on the left.

The midfield is interesting because United do have good players in there.

Hinata Miyazawa and Julia Zigiotti Olme started together against London City, they’ve got Rebeca Bernal available now as well and then further forward you’ve got Jess Park and Ella Toone, which is quite a lot of technical quality if United can get enough of the ball to use it.

That’s probably the bit I’d be wary of from an Arsenal point of view because, for all the conversation about United conceding seven goals in their opening two games, I wouldn’t look at those players and assume this is going to be an easy afternoon.

Ella Toone is still Ella Toone. Jess Park is a very clever footballer and Elisabeth Terland is a centre-forward I’d rather Arsenal didn’t give too many opportunities to in our penalty area.

So I’m expecting something along the lines of Tullis-Joyce in goal, Lundkvist, Le Tissier, Janssen and Sandberg across the back, Miyazawa and Zigiotti in midfield, then Park and Toone involved further forward with Terland leading the line.

And despite what happened to United against Chelsea, I’m expecting this to be a closer game than the opening results might lead you to believe.

I certainly don’t think Arsenal are going to win 5-0 simply because Chelsea did. Football doesn’t work like that and United have had a week to look at what went wrong, while Arsenal have spent their week working on how to turn all of those entries into the penalty area against Palace into better chances.

If United decide to sit a little deeper, Arsenal are probably going to need some of that patience again.

If they come out and try to play through us, I think that might suit Arsenal because there should be more space and, with players like Baum and Smith available, we’ve got the pace and directness to use it.

Which leaves me with a score prediction.

I hate doing these because the sensible thing is obviously to say Arsenal will win and then refuse to attach an actual number to it so nobody can remind me afterwards.

But that’s cheating.

I’m going Arsenal 2, Manchester United 0.

I think United will be better than they were against Chelsea and there may be periods, particularly early on, where Arsenal have to work quite hard to open them up.

But I also think Arsenal have too much attacking quality for them at the moment and, if we create anything like the number of opportunities we created against Palace, I’m taking the slightly optimistic view that this time a couple of them will go in.

I’d quite like another clean sheet as well because United do have enough quality going forward that keeping them quiet would be a decent afternoon’s work for this Arsenal defence.

So 2-0 Arsenal.

And if Lisa Baum would like to get her first WSL home goal while we’re there, that would suit me perfectly well.

What makes this an interesting game isn’t that I think it tells us anything definitive about either team’s season, because it obviously doesn’t this early. It’s that both sides have things they’d quite like to see improve from last weekend.

For Arsenal, it’s fairly straightforward.

We created more than enough against Palace to win the game and didn’t, so I’d like to see whether some of the work Renée has talked about this week produces slightly better chances when we get into those areas.

And obviously I’d quite like somebody to put one of them in the net this time.

I’d also love to see Reuteler and Cerci involved if they’re ready, particularly after spending the first couple of weeks wondering where they were and now finally having an explanation.

It feels as though we’re gradually getting closer to seeing what this Arsenal squad looks like with all of the new pieces available.

For Manchester United, I think we’ll learn a little more about how Eva Olid wants her team to respond after a difficult couple of weeks without needing to make Saturday some enormous judgement on what she’s trying to build there.

Which brings me back to that line from Renée.

“I’m always in favour of kindness in the world.”

I think I’ll keep that one.

We can be disappointed when Arsenal drop points. We can question team selections and substitutions, we can argue about who should start and who should be on the bench and we can expect a team with ambitions of winning the WSL to beat Crystal Palace at home.

That’s football. That’s part of the fun of following it.

We can probably do all of that without deciding somebody is useless after a bad afternoon.

I’ve gone 2-0 Arsenal. Let me know your score prediction, who you’d start against United and whether Reuteler and Cerci make your matchday squad.

Come and find Roberto on Instagram at @ArsenalWomenTrailblazers and join the conversation. You can also listen to the match preview on the podcast.